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Home My WebLink About12/10/2015 - Meeting Materials Wa er Sustainability in An Uncertain Future Jeff Niermeyer, Director of Public Utilities, Salt Lake City PUAC Annual Luncheon Winter 2015 q4 The News is Not Encouraging . . . •:* 2015 is likely to be hottest year, replacing 2014 as warmest on record •:* Earth 's CO2 levels have passed 400 PPM •:* 2005 -2015 is the warmest decade on record •: 7 of the 10 hottest years for the U .S . have occurred since 1998 2 The News is Not Encouraging . . . •: Fall 2015: SLC's warmest fall period on record •: Winter 2015: SLC 9 s warmest winter period on record •: October 2015: Much of central and northern Utah averaged 5 degrees above normal 3 What do observation say about climate warming ? - 11mat 'hange skeptic 440 420 400 380 current level 360 340 320 For 650,000 years, atmospheric COS has nearer been above this line ". until now 1950 � 280 a 260 240 220 200 180 160 400 rO 00 350.000 300.000 250.000 200 rO 00 150.000 100.000 50,000 0 YEAR before today 10 R 19501 -The View from the Past 650,.000 Years •: Earth experienced seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with end of last "ice age" 10,000 years ago •: GHG levels fluctuated within a very narrow band, varying from 180 ppm during cold glacials to about 280 ppm, during warm interglacials •: Warming and cooling cycles over the past three million years are linked to tectonic activity and variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun. •: GHG levels are likely higher than at any time in the last 20 million years 6 Summary of Temperature Trends Using the Entire Available Temperature Record • • Max. Temperature Min. Temperature Weather Station Range (OF) Range (OF) Period of Record Salt Lake City Airport 0.02 to 0.4 0.68 to 1 .0 1948 to 2006 Solitude/Brighton -0.42 to -0.1 0.5 to 0.81 1949 to 2005 Logan -0.04 to 0.13 0.05 to 0.21 1896 to 2006 Mountain Dell -0.25 to 0.3 0.53 to 0.93 1949 to 2005 Summaryof - • - • - Trends Using the Only ' • 1 Data 1 through 2006) Weather Station Max. Temp(rFa)ture Range Min. Temperature Range (OF) Salt Lake City Airport 0.004 to 0.81 0.62 to 1 .2 Alta -0.17 to 0.97 0.47 to 1 .2 Solitude/Brighton -0.5 to 0.2 0.86 to 1 .6 Logan 0.1 to 1 .15 0.1 to 1 .0 Mountain Dell a 0.15 to 1 .17 0.8 to 1 .5 a Data through 2005 only. 7 Lower Colorado Basin Mean Annual Temperature. Units: Degrees F. Annual: red. 11 -year running mean: blue Data from PRISM: 1895-2005. 62 O t,s(_-,-v,_.d rpq - 7 -; 1-1-1, u. 61 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 60 CL I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I F 59 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 58 I I I I I I I I I I I I o I I I i I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I � ii �I �I �I II II II I I I II 57 I I I II II II II II II II II II II II i I I I I I c Q - 56 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I _H�_ _1_�_I_+__4_,_4_H _H�_f�_�_I_+_I-�_,_�_1_�_f�_f�_f�_ _1_4_1_4_ 4_ I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 11 1 i t I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I 55 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 WRC r r cEFA Year NOAA Westmap Kelly Redmond, DRI s i• Variationsof p- 410 FF departures in temperakure in'C ifrorn the 1 M value) .+y Gomel 3eueral radcls SC'Y:IIIJnY,F�6'Il'SC'15 Ir.lri�:phcrc,praay CZ'z ,n*jrjm*rtV PM Kb&M u9sr�BG�f•S al SNESen,rem fiD I I I I I + I i I 4-0 I - I I i I T1 3.d 2,:5 2,0 I• 1 1.� ��rs Shew the rarge in ycar 21UD praduzad by •D.0pr i�r rr yy y l� �Ll Ia..■1 ri_+ Se�vterla� — A19 -- A1T AIF i.L 2 — $1 E2 1000 1100 1200 130b 14W 1500 16W 1700 1800 MO 2000 2100 — 1392e 9 Change in P-E (2021-2040 minus 1950-2000) w drier change in P-E (mm/day) wetter -6.3 42 41 0 0.1 0'2 0,3 W,rkel Tripd projection centered or. 90.0'E 10 i i�� ply Y Thomas Reichler University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science Precipitation Change : A2 Northern Utah Irtera-l-ual 1990 60 variability 50 i 40 Inte- -ty � 2090 E \ E \ — vara o It 30 20 _ — - — -- 0 ' Jon F.b Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug S*p Oct Nov Dec Jon Southern Utah �0 60 50 \ 40 E � � 30 = i 20 t0 — — — ` 0 Jon Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oc! Nov Dec Jan 12 Thomas Reichler University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science Temperature Change : A2 Northern Utah 30 variab la��♦� 1990 variability _ zo -^ t Inter model l�1 _ 2090 o var variabil'fty ` 0- Jon Feo Mor Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jon Southern Utah 30 zD U 10 O —10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jon 13 Winter precipitation falling more often as CHANGES IN ANNUAL TEMPERATURES,NE UTAH(Dinosaur) 025 I ri11J�]rJ11� • -200t 0 20 M0 m 'Pi I J �IJ� J�. J � 0.15 r � Jj �rJG 111il • 0.10 1s\JJJ ��'l gO.Off -06 LXPFCTED FRACTION 0- ANNUAL PRECIPITATION WITH MEAN TEMPERA 0 00 o a RAISED ABOVE FREEZING BY PROJECTED WARMINGS IN 2025 from 19bU-1999 VK; 1+8-Gegree NNUI UAIAJ EXPECTED FRACTION OF ANNUALPRECIPITATION WITH MEAN TEMPER RAISED ABOVE FREEZING BY PROJECTED WARMINGS IN 2050 ,_ • Ifrom 1950-1999 VIC I18-degree INPUT DATA] a5 N - 2025 WN 1 Derivedfrom monthly 2050 �. rPCC id r r rrr ��'1us 0.°0 0.15 C.25 035 FRACTION 14 Subpdlar POL;yr h-gh a(jIf) •r call I I F� I � 95�L�� •, col . � r • NE N trad's tr Inch cell ' tr 1 1. 4 i O if' 41f k W1T AII 4141L. 41E 4M L 492E PP J,' 170oU 41 ' 16 _ C[imate Change Feedback Loops •: Increase in sea temperature decreases CO2 absorption •: Decrease in oceanic absorption of CO2 with rising acidity of surface water. •: Acidification of oceanic surface layers reduces optimal conditions for planktonic life and therefore further reduces plankton absorption of CO2 •: Increasing respiration of soil- based bacteria releases more CO2 with rising temperature •: Rising sea and air temperature generates higher levels of atmospheric water-vapor, itself a powerful GHG 17 0imate Change Feedback Loops 4 •: Increased temperature generates increased cloud - cover (mixed feedback since clouds reflect sunlight back into space, while also preventing radiation from the ground •: Thawing of permafrost (land - based and coastal shallow seas) releases more methane •: Decreasing snow/ice surface decreases light/energy reflection •: Triggered start of release of sea - bed methane- hydrate deposits (parallel to end of Permian period) 18 Earth Interactions - Volume 17 (2013) - Paper No_23 - Page 1 a� In Mons " l.:opyrigbt O 2013,Paper 1'7-023.6 802—1,l 13 Fio—res,O Anur.ati on s,7 Tables. http-l/Fa.�hin tetaclions.org Planning for an Uncertain Future: Climate Change Sensitivity Assessment toward Adaptation Planning for Public Water Supply Tim Bardsley* Western Water Assessment, Salt Lake City, Utah Andrew Wood National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Mike Robbins Physical Sciences Division,NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory,Boulder,Colorado 7Yacie Kirkham, Laura Briefer, and Jeff Niermeyer Salt Lake City Department of Public Utilities, Salt Lake City, Utah Steven Burian University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah Received 7 November 2012; accepted 23 August 2013 ABSTRACT: Assessing climate change risk to municipal water supplies is often conducted by hydrologic modeling specific to local watersheds and in- frastructure to ensure that outputs are compatible with existing planning * Corresponding author address: Tim Bardsley, Western Water Assessment, 2242 W. North Temple, Salt Lake City, UT 84116. E-mail address: wvva.bardsleyCCgmail.com Changes in Mean Annual Temp & Precip comparing Sep• . ®HW3 • ch • HD1 HD4. . ' ®HW2 HD • ' • • HW1 (� W5 • (D • • • p) HW4 r • M • • U ' • ~ • • • � N • ti • • LMI5 • ------------------------------------------------- ca • • M 14 • . • • N WD4 x • • • W*�3 WW2 wnl( WD3 95..• ti IAAAIA WD2 • ♦ W1 • • • 112 GCMs hotdry 10th or 90th X warmdry 50th + warmwet o hotwet middle -20 -10 0 10 20 Monthly Mean Flow Sensitivity per F 20 ■ City Creek 15 ■Parleys Creek ■ Big Cottonwood Creek to Little Cottonwood Creek ■ Four Creeks Combined 5 U 0 k ov Dec Jan Feb ar pr ay' un ul ug epu� 1 -5 W-wo�cd .&T AQ/.&CAP City C)rftk -4.4 ±L I 1 -10 Parleys Creck -6,2 =i=2,7 Big Cottonwood Crcck -2.7 ±1,8 Little Cotwonwc d Creck -1,8 f I,s -15 Provo near Woodland -3.8 ±1,8 Wcbcr near Oakley -4,0 ±I's Duchcsnc new Tabiona -4,3 ±21,0 Four Creeks combined -3.1 P D carnbincd 4.0 t�. Impacts to Water Supply ❖ Short and warmer winters ❖ Winter precipitation falling more often as rain ❖ Earlier snowmelts ❖ Lower summer stream flows ❖ Increased frequencies of drought ❖ Greater summertime demand ❖ Increased fire danger ❖ Greater water loss due to evaporation ❖ Increased reservoir algae blooms ❖ Impacts to water quality 22 CO2 concentration, temperature, and sea level continue to rise long after emissions are reduced Magnitude of response Time taken to reach equilibrium Sea-level rise due to ice melting: CO2 emissions peak 0 several millennia 0 to 100 years ,�'� Sea-level rise due to thermal 0001 expansion: centuries to millennia Temperature stabilization: a few centuries CO2 stabilization: 100 to 300 years CO2 emissions Today 100 years 1,000 years 23 Climate change issues deserve our attention M s y Oki On the Financial Horizon for Public Utilities �w Rates Street light changes Nutrient Program Bonding FlexNet Financial Dash Board CCF= 748 gallons 1 BILLING UNIT Acre Foot of water = 325,900 gallons June 30, 2015 RECAP 435 CCF = 1 Acre Foot CCF =100 cubic Feet ❑ Sales Revenue all Funds = $93.4 million -----2014 was $93.4 as well ❑ Decrease in Operating Costs of $4.6 million—Largely due to dropping OPEB benefits ❑ DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE: ❑ Improved to 4.73 ratio Required is 1 .25 ❑ Definition . Net revenues divided by debt principle and interest annual payments ❑ Change in net Position (Net Income) $22.9 million an increase of $3.5 million ❑Total Assets or Capital added= Cash paid was $31 .4 million ❑----Total Assets changed by $30.4 million ❑ Cash in all Funds $70.4 million ❑ Decrease of $5.9 million from 2014 ❑ 2014 increased $5.2 million or almost no change since 2013 ❑ Outstanding Revenue Bond Debt $55.6 million- June 2015 ❑ Sewer revenue bonds by 2021 increase $252.7 million a) Rates changes of 30% next 3 year then 25% b) Rate effect after 4 years is 175% increase - c) 454% increase in current debt ; , No change in Water, Storm or Street Lighting Bond URS or Utah State Retirement Fund Liability the Department Assumed Yes, Public Utilities did pick up a $9.5 million pension liability 1. There is nothing wrong with an unfunded Liability 2. The URS was about 77.1% funded in 2014 which is extremely good. Our liability is a portion of this unfunded percentage. 3. Originally occurred because of the Market drop in 2008 (There Was always an unfunded amount, it just became more obvious) 4. Investment income and contributions fund the URS 5. We will pay contributions much like this is between a lease and a mortgage, Mortgages end and a lease may not. if we lease an automobile that we turn in and lease terms may change but as long as the car (pension) is needed the lease will continue. 6. Upturns in the market helps the plan recover these losses from 2 7. The URS is not in trouble meeting pension obligations 8. These obligations will be re-evaluated each year by actuaries. This liability may never actually go away. Possible Utility Rate Increases Water Rates = 4% next four fiscal years Metropolitan Water District rates increase similarly next five years Sewer Rates = 30% 2016 30% 2017 175% Compound Change 30% 2018 25% 2019 Street Lighting= ??? See next slide Revenue Utility Bonds (upgrades and Nutrient program) Issuing $252 million in Sewer Bonds Debt Service Payments for 5 years $60 million Debt increase by 2020 at 5 times current debt structure 3,41 ,f V. pCorning Street Lighting Changes City Council authorization : Transition Street Light Special Assessment Areas (SAA) from general fund to enterprise utility. •Spend over $800k in high efficiency and capital upgrades •Rate Study for an Enhanced Lighting Fee (ELF) •Public Outreach and Input (Jan-March) •Study Recommendation to PUAC and Council (March/April) •Goal for transition by July 1 , 2016 budgeU - SEWER CAPTIAL PLANNING NUTRIENT REGULATORY/ UPGRADES • Treatment Facility Influent Screen Building $ 187M Nutrient Rule $27M 2016 Pre-Design and Master Plan Final Design 2016 = Construction 2017-18 1 f EXISTd..=- '.F__dl J \ PUMP ST=-I'=''J ST I LDING 2017-18 Final Design R - . PROPOSED SCREENINGS , [ BUILDING 2019-2024 Construction (phases) Other projects incl : West Sewer Master Pla 2025 Rule Compliance* (*DWQ Rule change pend ` r . Prison Sewer & Treatment. epartment of Water Quality Rule" The Sensus FlexNet® system is a long-range radio network that serves as a dedicated and secure two-way communications highway for utilities. FlexNet is designed to evolve as technology advances. With dedicated channels, faster data speeds, and increased capacity in densely populated markets, FlexNet enables utilities to meet the needs of today as well as the challenges of sEnsus tomorrow. The Measure of the Future Redefining Smart Utility Communicationr 1 . No Frequency sharing-no data transmission interruption 2. Transmits • to 40 miles point-to-point 3. Ensures accurate bills 4. Helps customers • • usage behavior 5. Consistent quality service ci+rch altlakp 65 It wj FlexNet Design Propagation Analysis • . `'" ��, Salt Lake City Public Utilities •� - �� Salt Lake laity, UT 1 0 R�`ddRBSOM it '' �' RF Engineer:Fred Sheridan o�P Date: ' ?3P2015 • • Version:8 f • � �, �• ��,,� Water Design • Summit P3+ 1, h Best Server Coverage • Victory Rd Reservoir • 1 bUd I;akmW=awj Shop r 1'� 1 �• Flat lom Mesa Sandy • I City 5 Coverage Threshold: -116 d8m FSK: 13 �T. r -o ►-Vrmon E n-voc ' Meter Type:'^late Meter Location:Fit: et urr • r WQSIOf7 ROR� 1�9lPWS�C•DD�eC CJ•U InOm/.7C,trY�: :'�. w • .a • u M • i Mm•n Silver Fcok Cmaied w,w • � •• Nr�(orereJ •: IL ��I hai..a..,esrrnn�n•ecn+. �r,in '� rud►Mena an+tr MANIORES West Jordan u • t �' Flat Mr • e Sandy Cil_y, LEGEND: I '' � tte � • . � cor•••ii,tbcemi m1i1 r• Whi to city �� burg Li hd<io(t AND f�.2015 PliansoRUmorution simle 1167,40C Sensus Customer Portal 0. 000, Dashboard \. Usage Over Current Billing Cycle Usage Alert Threshold Meter Activity Current Bill Forecast -- Usage/Forecast Seasonal Avg I Alerts Current got Last A•a•7lraVf• deters t3aMon• o :000 a000 e000 •000 tease •s.••o •4eos Thresholds • $75.20 Beiichtnarics + 64.2 0 $•Projected +tea 71 % +73% History currentbAffigcyde Last 55 th 0 Consumed ofeonsunrptbnis this cycle from illm#2 Account Alerts and Notifications for this Billing Cycle Outdoor Watering How do I compare? Settings J� • • ns Conservation _ OW12/15 dolor sit amet,consectetur adipisong elit.Nam illud vehementer green,sundown beatum es•e usage MM411S dolor sit amet,consectetur adipisdng elit.Nam illud vehementer green,eundem beatum esse 3AIeqs 3Notifications Nights 10% . 1 ,r Water Monday,Wednesday YOU0onsumel0%more and Friday nights for a single farniy home a Trends of Funds Available for Water Utility CIP $80,000 $70,000 T $60,000 h 0 $50,000 �� RECEIPTS u DISBURSEMENTS S $40,000 I Funds Available for CIP DEPRECIATION a Linear(RECEIPTS) n $30,000 Linear(DISBURSEMENTS) d Linear(Funds Available for CIP) S $20,000 $10,000 $0 '` K 0a, Off ' Oi9 7o ti•' Y .41 k •ic 1 '�5i,1. Trends of Funds Available for Sewer Utility CIP $25,000 $20,000 T h 0 $15,000 RECEIPTS u DISBURSEMENTS S Funds Available for CIP Depreciation a $10,000 Linear(RECEIPTS) n Linear(DISBURSEMENTS) d Linear(Funds Available for CIP) S $5,000 ------------- �r a $0 Kw ■� 1 '�5 i.,l. Trends of Funds Available for Stormwater Utility CIP 14,000 12,000 T h 10,000 O u -RECEIPTS 8,000 DISBURSEMENTS S -Funds Available for CIP a -DEPRECIATION n 6,000 Linear(RECEIPTS) d Linear(DISBURSEMENTS) S 4,000 Linear(Funds Available fo` ) 2,000 i 00 00 00G 00 O� O� O� O� O� O� sz S � ,T, Trends of Funds Available for Street Lighting Utility CIP 4,000 3,500 T 3,000 h 0 2,500 RECEIPTS u DISBURSEMENTS S 2,000 Funds Available for CIP —DEPRECIATION a 1,500 Linear(RECEIPTS) n Linear(DISBURSEMENTS) d Linear(Funds Available for CIP) S 1,000 500 f,. 02 �r ,T, r'Iri l ,f -P bllc UtTtle-�.eDl J-r_r_ri-r) _rr c P, Customer Service Satisfaction Rating Annual Customer Service Cost per Account 96.00% 95.60% 95.60% $50.00 National Benchmark is<$48.34 95.50% 95.2% $45.00 $42.00 $39.90 $40.91 42.45 Goal is>92.0% $40.00 $34 97 $35.67 95.00% $35.00 94.50% 94.20% $30.00 94.00% 93.80% $25.00 93.50% 93.00 $20.00 % 93.00% $15.00 92.50% $10.00 92.00% $5.00 91.50% $0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Customer Service Calls Lost I N T E R N E T PAYMENTS 14.00% 12 59% Goal is<9%. MAKE UP NEARLY 20% OF 12.00% 11.02% 10 38% 10.68% 10.00% 8.90% 9.20% ALL CUSTOMER 8.00% PAYMENTS 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% ..Viso 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ,2 V ' T F ML • T r jr y f - t